Friday, 27 January 2012

BP's World Energy Projections to 2030

BP recently released their most recent Energy Outlook 2030. This is an interesting document with lots of useful information on what energy trends are likely to look like between 2010 and 2030.

"This Energy Outlook contains our projections of future energy trends and key
uncertainties, based on our views of the evolution of the world economy, of policy, and

Income growth and population growth are the two primary drivers of energy use. Primary energy consumption is expected to grow by 1.6% per year to 2030.This is slower than the 2.0% per annum (p.a.)growth rate that  was observed over the past 20 years. World electricity demand is expected to grow by 2.6% p.a. over the same period. Some emerging countries are going to have difficulty meeting the demand for electricity. The energy mix in 2030 will still be dominated by fossil fuels although oil's share of world energy mix will decline. Oil is expected to be the slowest growing fuel over the next 20 years. Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel (2.1% p.a.). Almost all of the growth (96%) in energy demand is expected to come from non-OECD countries. The fastest growing segment is for renewables (including biofuels) and they are expected to to grow at 8.2% per year between 2010 and 2030. The 8.2% p.a. is very close to my own calculation of 8.5% p.a.although I did not include biofuels in my calculation.

Energy intensities are expected to converge due to energy trade and energy efficiency.

Renewables are expected to play a greater role in electricity generation.

 In 2030, Canada will be pumping 2.2 Mb/d more oil from the Alberta tar sands than the 1.3 Mb/d they do today. Oil supply from non-conventional oil (tar sands, shale oil, etc.) will grow but still be a relatively small amount when compared to conventional oil sources. Global demand for oil is projected to be around 103 Mb/d in 2030. Conventional oil supply is expected to meet the vast majority of this demand. What is not clear is where the oil will come from. The expectation seems to be that Iran, Iraq, Russia, and Saudi Arabia will be pumping a lot more oil in 2030 than they do today.

CO2 emissions, however, continue to rise.

BP's projections are in the mid range of most publicly available energy demand forecasts. For 2030, the IEA is projecting global oil demand around 100 Mb/d, the US EIA is projecting oil demand around 111 Mb/d and my own projections are for global oil demand around 117 Mb/d.